How long does it take Double to get to the right element?

[fanghoul]

So I've been playing around with a diamond Doublicious with max Chaos recently, and there are fights where she just absolutely refuses to switch to the right element. I decided to do some basic statistics to figure out how long I should expect for her to get to the right element, and share the results.

She shifts elements once per second if she's not attacked. If you are attacked, it's usually easy enough to throw the enemy and get a couple more shifts in before they attack you again, which I'll guess averages out to shifting about every 3 seconds. Let's say that's close enough to get an idea.

So, assuming you've started as the wrong element, here's the number of shifts it takes to get to some significant probability milestones

3 Shifts => ~50% chance now being the right element

7 Shifts => ~80%

10 Shifts => ~90%

21 Shifts => ~99%

31 Shifts => ~99.9%

So if the enemy is not attacking you, you can be virtually certain to get to the right element in 21 seconds, but there's still that 1 in 100 chance you're out of luck. However, if the enemy is attacking you, at 30 seconds into the fight, there's still a 1 in 10 chance that you're trying to get to the right element, all of which is actually pretty consistent with my own experience.

If there's any lesson to take out of this, it's that Double's best in fight's where she's not fighting 3 opponents with 3 different elements, because there's always about a 1% chance of it taking just over a minute total getting to the right element for each defender if the enemy won't stop attacking you. And that's assuming that no one tags out before you can kill them.

I guess this also shows why Jaw Breaker and Rainbow Blight are such popular Doubles: Even if you don't get to elemental advantage immediately, they're still accomplishing something.

 

[AwsomeTheMyth]

Or another moral lesson of reading your essay: Never trust your own double all the time, or else enjoy wasted minutes attacking the enemy and see yourself spending so many theonites over a lost match.

 

[Starsmore]

Short version: totally random.

 

[fanghoul]

Or another moral lesson of reading your essay: Never trust your own double all the time, or else enjoy wasted minutes attacking the enemy and see yourself spending so many theonites over a lost match.

I would word this differently, but I think this is correct. When using Double, particularly one with Chaos, she's a bit all or nothing so it's good to have a backup options when the elements just won't go your way. Tagging in your back-up and keeping moving is a lot less stressful than hoping that the 10th element change will finally go your way. Even if you finally get it, if you've swapped elements 20 times before getting to the right one, you may now be too stressed out to fight well. 1v1 fights with her can go just as poorly as 3v3 in that way.

 

[Soju_]

It took 2 of my companion teammates lives
No it usually took forever, at least 20s for me

 

[Splendid]

it seems that my doubles will switch to any element except the one with an advantage over the opponent she's currently facing. So this is what i do: i switch to the advantage over the element of the next opponent in line, then force tag out the current one. Profit all the time, except for when they all have the same element.
You can also use Beast from Geherra to stall and gain more time to swap element.