Pull Rates for The Characters Themselves?

[XxViolettaxX]

Before we start, NO THIS IS NOT RELIC RARITY ODDS.


Hey guys, Violetta here with my first post. I haven't seen anybody else make a post about this (maybe I'm just blind) so i decided to make this post on this topic myself. I want to know if anybody knows what the actual pull rates for the characters are. Not the rarity mind you, the game already shows us that.

Bronze: 82.0%
Sliver:14.0%
Gold:3.5%
Diamond:0.5% <--- lol


Not sure exactly if there's a way to even know what the characters pull chance is, but I'm here to give my personal take on things.

Before we start let me share with you somethings that i have noticed while watching people opening relics on youtube. I've noticed that sometimes players get back to back duplicates of gold characters.... So i started thinking, do some characters have a higher pull rate than others? The problem is, we don't know because the game doesn't share that part with us. Other mobile games like Dragon ball Legends actually do show the pull chance of specific characters, so you know what you are getting yourself into.


Here's how i see it.

I 300%-ed valentine's origin story and got the 12 val fighter relics for 100%-ing all 3 difficulties. Prior to this i got my first gold fighter from a gold fighter relic and it was Last Hope: Valentine. Upon opening the 12 valentine relics i got 3 golds, a duplicate of Last Hope and 2 Silent kill(s).

Alright math time

Trying to figure out the pull rates for the characters themselves I came up with this rough conclusion.

In regards to fighter relics (in this case Valentine) you only get the featured character. In the Valentine relic the are 3 available golds (at the time of this post) Last Hope, Silent Kill, and Surgeon General. Pyro Technique is exclusive to the scorched relic i do believe, so we don't include her here. Knowing how the relic odds always add up to 100% (as seen above for rarity odds) that's what i went with.

This is my rough conclusion:

Last Hope: 33.4%
Silent Kill: 33.4%
Surgeon General: 33.4%

As far as premiere relics go, I'm too lazy to do the math but you get the point. Lets just assume that every bronze in premiere relics have an equal chance of pulling. All silvers have an equal chance of pulling, yada yada same for gold and diamond. Its just luck and random that you get the one you want or you get the same one. My guess is every character that is available in the game right now (not including at the time of this post Rockstar, Lapis Luxury, Heart of Darkness, and NecroBreaker) have the exact same rate of pulling in premiere relics within their rarity. Last example, if your going to pull a gold from a premiere relic, you have an equal chance to get anyone.


That"s just my speculation though, so who really knows?

Feel free to let me know what your thoughts are on this subject

 

[BallotBoxer]

I think the odds are two steps. First the RNG determines your material (you get a bronze!) then it picks from the pool a character at random. That's how I want it to behave, but my relic pulls since 3.4 have been weird.

For instance, Back to School relics had a seemingly suspicious trend of flooding the same character. From 8 relics, 7 are Ivy League Parasouls. "Hey wait, the pool for that relic was tiny (3 gold, 3 silver, 1 diamond), so it was just luck" you say.

This morning that luck struck 3 Stormy Relics revealing 2 Hype Man Beowulfs (he's silver, so two in a row is rare). This was preceded by 3 Sunken Relics containing 3 Understudy Cerebellas.

It could just be luck, but to me it is like the RNG gets fixated and repeats the same operation, creating these perceived duplicate streaks.

Would love to hear from Hidden Variable how it really happens behind the scenes.

 

[cappatacus]

Throwback to when I pulled like 5 Bio Exorcists in two months lol

I have a feeling it really is just luck. With so many players there's bound to be instances of this behavior from pulls.

 

[Luke]

I would like to know the individual chance as well. I don’t care if it’s calculated by stages (rarity then specific fighter) or not.

 

[TraiP]

I think the odds are calculated the way @BallotBoxer said. PRNG makes things look "random" when in fact they are not.Assuming they are random then it is 1/n , where n is the total characters in each rarity.if there are 26 bronzes ( i think each character has two variants) then the probability of getting a variant you want is roughly 1/26 (to be extreeeemely precise this is the conditional probability of two events A="rarity",B="Get 'this' variant" but no need to do this) .

In Summary, if you know the rarity
for each bronze is, 1/26 (total 26 variants)
for each silver is, 1/37 (total 3*13 -2 ,beo and painwheel have only two silver variants)
for each gold is, 1/39 (excluding the relic exclusive ones)
for each diamond is, 1/16(excluding the new ones)
and the probability of getting the same in a row from relics of the same kind is (1/n)^2

I can't say for sure if those match the actual probability unless I know the algorithm that is used.In general a PRNG uses a "seed" from something on your side (some PRNGs use ram,cpu,big integers etc.) to create something that looks random to you because you can only see a small fraction of it's output .In theory the way you calculate the valentine probability should be how the probability is calculated,but depending on the seed your timing might shift a bit those probabilities.