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Best way to get Annie in 2.4

Discussion in 'Annie' started by Rekken, Oct 15, 2020 at 8:19 AM.

  1. Rekken

    Rekken New Member

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    Anyone has idea of what's the best way to get Annie? Jackpot relics or Premiere relics? and also anyone has the accurate stats I would love to see, thanks
     
  2. BallotBoxer

    BallotBoxer Well-Known Member

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    To get Annie in 2.4 is IMPOSSIBLE unless you have mastered time travel. ;)

    To get Annie in 4.4 (happening later this month or perhaps November 2020), I recommend Jackpot relics.
    cosmic.png

    I went with a 10+1 Jackpot deal for Fukua and ended up with a Vaporwave Vixen with the increased Fukua odds and the guaranteed gold (or better) in the +1. Look at the odds!

    Premiere (regular)
    Diamond = 0.5%
    Gold = 3.5%
    Silver = 14%
    Bronze = 82%

    Premiere (+1)
    Diamond = 1%
    Gold = 7%
    Silver = 92%
    Bronze = 0%

    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    Jackpot (regular)
    Diamond = 1%
    Gold = 9%
    Silver = 90%
    Bronze = 0%

    Jackpot (+1)
    Diamond = 2%
    Gold = 98%
    Silver = 0%
    Bronze = 0%

    The worst you could get out of a 10+1 Jackpot deal is 10 silvers and a gold, maybe none being Annie (there are increased odds, not guaranteed). The 10 silvers are worth 400/1000 relic shards, nearly half a gold relic! Ultimate success is the Annie odds influence aligning with the +1 and giving you a diamond or gold Annie.
     
  3. Blimeylimey

    Blimeylimey Member

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    Best way to get Annie in 4.4 is really going to depend on how much you have to spend and how many Annie you're trying to get.
    There is no difference in chance to get Annie between premiere and jackpot.

    Assuming things are the same as with Fukua release:

    For Fukua, Cloned relics had a 2x chance to get Fukua. Assuming 2x chance meant 2/14, you had about 82% chance to get at least one Fukua from a 10+1 and 97% chance to get at least one for 2x 10+1. For Annie, the odds might be slightly worse (2/15) because there is a chance for Fukua now. If Cosmic relics have a 2/15 chance to have Annie, then it's about 80% chance for at least one Annie in a 10+1 and about 96% chance for 2x 10+1. If your goal is to get quickly get one Annie of any kind and spend as little as possible, theonite for Cosmic premiere relic 10+1 is the way to go.

    If you have unlimited money and your goal is to get all Annie variants, you should ignore Cosmic relics entirely.
    Instead, get Annie character relics from the fighter variety packs. Then you can trigger a 10+1 Annie relic offer (for money, not theonite) by full leveling an Annie card of silver or higher tier. If I remember correctly, the offer for me was $40 for 10+1 Doppelganger relic pack. This offer has some kind of cooldown and does not happen every time. Repeat this cycle until you have acquired all Annie variants.
     
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  4. Rekken

    Rekken New Member

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    thanks so much! and yea i got the numbers confused, silly me
     
  5. Rekken

    Rekken New Member

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    I almost have 1000 theonite and i just want a annie, after I get a annie Ill care for the other Annie quality
     
  6. evilgordo

    evilgordo Active Member

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    It's not for everyone but...
    the only guaranteed way to get Annie when 4.4 drops is also the most expensive: Hyper Fighter Pack (currently 10K Theo)
    If you don't have the Theo saved up, then it'll cost real world money to get the theo (over $100 US, oof!).

    At the worst RNG you'll get 10 bronze + 1 silver Annie cards (and 10+1 relics for every other chara).
     
  7. Lililira

    Lililira Well-Known Member

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    Also, weighing the relative costs, a 10+1 of the Jackpots costs the same as 3 10+1 Premiere packs with an extra 3 singles at 5k theo for each.

    We don't know how boosted the Annie odds are in these relics, but I'm going to assume they are both the same x2 as the Fukua release relics and base my calculations off of that. Also, odds are approximate since I don't know how the x2 is applied, so I'm just guessing that Annie is a 2/16 chance (aka 12.5% for each relic) to make her double the odds of the 14 other characters at 1/16 each.


    From 33 + 3 Premieres:
    Odds of getting at least 1:
    - Diamond Annie: ~2.44%
    - Gold Annie: ~17.06%
    - Silver Annie: ~92.25%
    - Bronze Annie: ~338.25% (aka will probably get 3)

    From 10 + 1 Jackpots:
    Odds of getting at least 1:
    - Diamond Annie: ~1.29%
    - Gold Annie: ~21%
    - Silver Annie: ~115% (aka will probably get 1)

    Please note that all odds are approximate, and what you end up getting will rely on luck. ~100% odds doesn't mean guaranteed, and you may end up missing out by getting unlucky. I don't have the time right now to run a chi-square test to figure out the odds of that, but just know that it *can* happen.

    (Also, I'd be very appreciative if someone could look at my math and let me know if I messed anything up!)


    Premieres

    Regular Premieres
    Diamond Annie odds per relic: 0.005 * 0.125 = 0.000625 = 0.0625%
    Gold Annie odds per relic: 0.035 * 0.125 = 0.004375 = 0.4375%
    Silver Annie per relic: 0.14 * 0.125 = 0.0175 = 1.75%
    Bronze Annie per relic: 0.82 * 0.125 = 0.1025 = 10.25%

    +1 Premieres
    Diamond Annie odds per relic: 0.01 * 0.125 = 0.00125 = 0.125%
    Gold Annie odds per relic: 0.07 * 0.125 = 0.00875 = 0.875%
    Silver Annie per relic: 0.92 * 0.125 = 0.115 = 11.5%

    Odds of 1:
    Diamond Annie: (0.0625% * 33) + (0.125% * 3) = 2.0625% + 0.375% = 2.4375%
    Gold Annie: (0.4375% * 33) + (0.875% * 3) = 14.4375% + 2.625% = 17.0625%
    Silver Annie: (1.75% * 33) + (11.5% * 3) = 57.75% + 34.5% = 92.25%
    Bronze: (10.25% * 33) + 0 = 338.25%

    Jackpots

    Regular Jackpots
    Diamond Annie odds per relic: 0.01 * 0.125 = 0.00125 = 0.125%
    Gold Annie odds per relic: 0.07 * 0.125 = 0.00875 = 0.875%
    Silver Annie per relic: 0.92 * 0.125 = 0.115 = 11.5%

    +1 Jackpots
    Diamond Annie odds per relic: 0.02 * 0.125 = 0.0025 = 0.25%
    Gold Annie odds per relic: 0.98 * 0.125 = 0.1225 = 12.25%

    Odds of 1:
    Diamond Annie: (0.124% * 10) + (0.25% * 1) = 1.24% + 0.25% = 1.29%
    Gold Annie: (0.875% * 10) + (12.25% * 1) = 8.75% + 12.25% = 21%
    Silver Annie: (11.5% * 10) + 0 = 115%

    Not sure which deal is better tbh, since the odds are pretty close for all rarities except bronze, so it really comes down to luck. That said, the bronzes will be useful fodder for evolution and grinding skill points, so I'll probably go for the Premieres.


    EDIT: Hang on, forgot the Hyper pack, lemme run the numbers comparing it to the equivalent cost in Premieres and Jackpots (aka 10k theo), but my gut says that'll be the best deal hands down for getting the most high-rarity Annies upon release.

    10k theo = Hyper Pack Annie 10+1, or 6 Premiere 10+1s + 6 singles, or 2 Jackpot 10+1s

    From Annie 10+1 from Hyper Pack:
    Odds of getting at least 1:
    - Diamond Annie: ~6%
    - Gold Annie: ~42%
    - Silver Annie: ~232% (Will probably get 2)
    - Bronze Annie: ~820% (Will probably get 8)

    + A 10+1 of all the other characters! Which adds to the relative value a lot on top of the Annie odds.


    From 66 + 6 Premieres:
    Odds of getting at least 1:
    - Diamond Annie: ~4.88%
    - Gold Annie: ~34.13%
    - Silver Annie: ~184.5% (aka will probably get 1-2)
    - Bronze Annie: ~676.5% (aka will probably get 6-7)

    From 20 + 2 Jackpots:
    Odds of getting at least 1:
    - Diamond Annie: ~2.58%
    - Gold Annie: ~42%
    - Silver Annie: ~230% (aka will probably get 2)


    The Hyper pack is the best since it guarantees 11 Annies, has the best odds for higher rarity Annies, and also provides another 154 fighters from all the other 10+1s of the other characters.

    Again, it's also highly dependent on luck, and on how the x2 Annie multiplier is applied (there are multiple methods that result in slightly different odds).


    Hyper
    Odds of one:
    Diamond Annie: (0.5% * 10) + (1% * 1) = 6%
    Gold Annie: (3.5% * 10) + (7% * 1) = 42%
    Silver Annie: (14% * 10) + (92% * 1) = 232%
    Bronze Annie: (82% * 10) + 0 = 820%

    Premieres
    Just *2 ing the odds of the 5k theo calculation

    Jackpots
    Just *2 ing the odds of the 10 + 1

    EDIT: Fixed the calculations with the correct number of Premieres!
     
    #7 Lililira, Oct 15, 2020 at 10:22 AM
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2020 at 12:27 PM
  8. TonyPartridge30

    TonyPartridge30 Well-Known Member

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    The best way to get Annie will be through one of the premium Annie deals. Or a premium Relic Variety Pack after 4.4 launches. Those will be the only guaranteed ways to get Annie, the other ways will simply be increased odds.
     
  9. Blimeylimey

    Blimeylimey Member

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    Cloned Premiere 10+1 pack was 1500 theo on release. Assuming Cosmic relics will cost the same, for 5k theo, you can get 3x 10+1 premiere and 3 extra singles. For 10k theo, that's 6x 10+1 and 6 singles.
     
  10. Lililira

    Lililira Well-Known Member

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    Knew I messed something up, lol. I'll run the numbers again.
     
  11. evilgordo

    evilgordo Active Member

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    LOL - We crunch these numbers every time a new character drops. Odds don't change, but the pool of characters gets bigger which makes probabilities of getting said character a bit 'less probable' (even with "double odds"). RNG makes nothing a sure thing and each individual player's disposable theo/cash is gonna influence their 'best value' when trying to acquire said new character.

    Between Premiere and Jackpot Annie relics, statistically speaking, opening more relics should yield more chances to 'win' due to RNG.

    I do feel for newer F2P players where this is their first new character experience as they most likely do not have the Theo reserves to gamble as much as enfranchised players who have been hoarding Theo for months in anticipation...
     
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  12. Lililira

    Lililira Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I'm feeling like x2 isn't enough of a boost to yield satisfying results anymore, and I hope they raise it to at least x2.5 or something, or by giving the Jackpots a higher boost than the Premieres. This will mean it's easier for people to get Annie early on, which you might *think* leads to less sales, but I'm pretty certain it would actually lead to better sales in the long run. Let me explain:

    Getting repeat buyers is based a lot on customer satisfaction, so her odds have to be high enough for people to consider buying them repeatedly.

    Especially
    if their first pulls are with saved up theonite (aka 'free' pulls that earn the game no revenue), the odds have to be good enough for people to consider spending real money on the game to get more, which they aren't going to do if their early 'free' pulls aren't good enough to convince them to do so. There needs to be a middle ground reached, where Annies are common enough to convince people to pay real money to keep buying more of her release relics, but not so common that folks can get most / all of the variants they want too quickly.

    During the Fukua release I was seeing a ton of people in chat getting burned by Fukua-less pulls from her release relics, and then swearing that they'd never buy them again. Especially with the Jackpots. If this happens with Annie, it might hurt her release earnings considerably.
     
    #12 Lililira, Oct 15, 2020 at 1:27 PM
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2020 at 10:51 PM
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  13. TonyPartridge30

    TonyPartridge30 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I mostly got burned by me Cloned Premium Relic pulls. I wasn't able to complete the Master Fukua daily until after I got a Vaporwave Vixen from the Prize Fight. :mad:
     
  14. fanghoul

    fanghoul Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, this is real thing, is that you need to at least pull a Silver at some point in order to get the gold moves to really start advancing the character. In some ways this makes the Jackpot relic make more sense, since the all or nothing nature means that you are least won't be stuck with bronze or two that can't really take you anywhere.

    On the other hand you might be stuck with nothing. I bought 2 jackpots with Fukua with my saved theonite, because I definitely don't have room for all the characters from the Hyperfighter pack, and one was a complete bust.

    I really appreciate @Lililira putting numbers to what would be a gut instinct decision for me though.
     
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  15. evilgordo

    evilgordo Active Member

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    When you say 2 jackpots, you mean 10+1?

    FYI, the relics from a Hyper Fighter pack are vouchers, so you won't open any on purchase. Plus, you can open more (fighter) relics than you currently have room for when doing a 10 (+1) batch opening and you're not already at MAX. While you have fighter inventory over your limit, you just can't collect/open relics (that may) contain fighters.
     
    #15 evilgordo, Oct 16, 2020 at 9:19 AM
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2020 at 9:29 AM
  16. fanghoul

    fanghoul Well-Known Member

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    Yep 10+1 packs

    No, I know that. I just already have a huge pile of relics I can't open because I don't have room and I want to pull some points out of the characters before sacrificing them to make space.
     
  17. evilgordo

    evilgordo Active Member

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    Oh, ok. Just for two 10+1 Jackpot pulls you could have bought the Hyper pack and only open 11 relics (not 22), all Fukua and at worst RNG get 1 silver...
     
  18. Lililira

    Lililira Well-Known Member

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    2 10+1 Jackpots and only one had Fukua. Just reading that made me wince...

    ...and it made me worry even more that the x2 odds on the previous release relics aren't high enough to keep up with the new character additions from Annie onward.

    Diving into the 'Full Math' calculations in my post above, the odds of getting any rarity Annie from each relic at a x2 boost is just slightly over 10%... meaning you can only expect 1 Annie from a whole 10+1 pull, and even then the odds are low enough that you're likely to get none if you just get a little unlucky. Yeesh... definitely low enough to be extremely discouraging, and drive away sales from the folks who were on the fence about spending real cash to buy a bunch of release relics. 5000 theo is a lot to pay to get none of the character that the release relic promotes with the whole 'boosted odds!' banner right next to the purchase button.
     
    #18 Lililira, Oct 16, 2020 at 12:49 PM
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2020 at 3:13 PM
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  19. evilgordo

    evilgordo Active Member

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    Yeah, with each new character in the pool, we lose almost a percentage point of 'winning' even with double odds.

    X2 Odds:
    Robo: 14.1%
    Fukua: 13.3%
    Annie: 12.5%
    Next character: 11.7%

    I understand that the Devs want to slowly distribute out new characters to players' collections, it does get (some of) them to buy/spend Theo/$.
    That's why starting with Fukua, new characters aren't added to all relics, players figured out to hoard relics for Ms./Robo Fortunes releases.

    If players want that a chance at the new character before the next update... players gotta gamble and theo/$ is the only way for now. Obviously, the 'sure' things will come later with PF and character specific relics, but until then some players maybe turned off by poor relic openings after spending their investments...

    Oh! Here's an idea: Maybe if the +1 Cosmic Relic not only doubled rarity odds but also Annie character odds (X4 odds!)
     
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  20. fanghoul

    fanghoul Well-Known Member

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    I can see that's what the numbers say now. But in terms of pure pulling experience, 10+1 Jackpots feel like the way to get golds, while 10+1 Character relics feel like the way to get a nice set of 10 bronzes plus one silver. But the critical difference here is that you might not pull a Annie at all with the Jackpot, let alone a gold one.
     

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