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[Guide] How to get the best value for your theonite

Discussion in 'New Player Guides & FAQs' started by Mornedil, May 13, 2020.

  1. Mornedil

    Mornedil Well-Known Member

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    Ever since I started playing this game over a year ago, I've been seeing people ask from time to time in the chat: "What should I spend my theonite on?"
    And a lot of people, including veteran players, will tell you that the best thing to spend your theonite on is the 10+1 premiere relic pack.

    But buying the 10+1 premiere relic pack is, objectively, bad value for your theonite, because there is another offer for 1600 theo to buy 1,840,000 coins. And I'm finally making this thread about why that offer, in the long run, will give you way more fighters, more coins, and more gold/diamond fighters.

    I am going to show you the math behind why it's the better offer, but first of all, keep in mind that this is all about wanting to get as many fighters as possible for your theonite, and as many gold/diamond variants as possible. So that's what we're comparing here - What you should spend your theonite on if you want to expand your fighter collection as much as possible.

    Since this based on an objective observation of the currency system and the in-game offers, I am going to show you the cold hard calculations behind the difference between buying the 10+1 pack VS spending your theo on coins.


    For each 1000 theonite you spend on the 10+1 relic pack you get:
    • 11 new fighters total.
    • 13.7% chance to only get bronze fighters from your 10 regular relics (0.82^10)
    • 98.2% chance to get at least one silver fighter ( 1-(0.86^10*0.08) )
    • 34.8% chance to get at least one gold fighter ( 1-(0.965^10*0.93) )
    • 5.8% chance to get at least one diamond fighter ( 1-(0.995^10*0.99) )
    • On average, you gain +8.2 bronze fighters ( 0.82*10 )
    • On average, you gain +2.32 silver fighters ( 0.14*10+0.92 )
    • On average, you gain +0.42 gold fighters ( 0.035*10+0.07 )
    • On average, you gain +0.06 diamond fighters ( 0.005*10+0.01 )
    • Additionally, you gain 440 relic shards towards a new silver/gold/diamond relic.
    For each 1000 theonite you spend on buying coins you get:
    • 1,150,000 coins (1,840,000 for 1600 theo translates into 1,150,000 per 1000 theo)... and if you spend all these coins on premiere relics you get:
      • 23 new fighters total
      • 1% chance to only get bronze fighters from your 23 relics (0.82^23)
      • 96.8% chance to get at least one silver fighter ( 1-(0.86^23) )
      • 55.9% chance to get at least one gold fighter ( 1-(0.965^23) )
      • 10.8% chance to get at least one diamond fighter ( 1-(0.995^23) )
      • On average, you gain +18.86 bronze fighters ( 0.82*23 )
      • On average, you gain +3.22 silver fighters ( 0.14*23 )
      • On average, you gain +0.805 gold fighters ( 0.035*23 )
      • On average, you gain +0.115 diamond fighters ( 0.005*23 )
      • Additionally, you gain 920 relic shards towards a new silver/gold/diamond relic.

    As you can see from these numbers, spending the same amount of theonite on coins and then buying relics for coins, has both a higher chance to give you gold/diamond fighters, and also give you almost DOUBLE the amount of gold/diamond fighters per 1000 theonite you spend.
    In addition to that, you're gaining more than double the amount of fighters to your collection, which means you can farm more skill points and gain more evolution fodder. On top of that, you gain a lot more relic shards which helps you gain higher tier fighters faster.


    With all of this said, I am not telling you to always buy coins and never buy the 10+1 pack. I am just showing the statistics of why buying coins is objectively more efficient and gives more value for your theonite. But I also know a lot of people enjoy opening the 10+1 pack because it feels satisfying to them, and that's perfectly fine and a valid reason to buy it. It's a game after all, and we're meant to enjoy games.
    However, when a new player asks what their theonite is best spent on, you should not push your personal opinion onto them like it's a fact. They are asking what's best, not what you personally spend your theonite on.
     
    MAjOmneQ, Loiniel, qlimax and 16 others like this.
  2. Mornedil

    Mornedil Well-Known Member

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    Some common arguments I've seen against buying coins and my responses to them:

    - But the 10+1 pack has a bonus relic with better odds!
    - Yes, 1 relic with double odds. That's not better than 13 additional premiere relics with normal odds, which is what you could have bought with the same amount of theonite. You're missing out on so many fighters, relic shards, and simply opening a higher quantity of normal relics gives you a way higher chance of gaining gold/diamond fighters.

    - I still prefer the 10+1 premiere relic pack.
    - Yeah that's okay, you're allowed to buy what you enjoy the most. Just don't tell new players that's better or has better odds. Because it's not true.

    - The 10+1 pack is better because coins are better spent on upgrading fighters, so buying coins for theonite and then spending coins on relics is a waste.
    - Okay, but... You DO realize you're buying relics with extra coins that you wouldn't have had to begin with, right? You get 1.840,000 for spending 1600 theonite. You can afford both upgrading and buying new relics for those coins. Even if you buy 20 premiere relics for coins, you still have 840k additional coins for upgrades and you're still getting more fighters per 1000 theo than you would have gotten from the 10+1 pack.

    - I have better luck with the 10+1 pack. I never get anything good when buying relics from the cabinet.
    - This is just not true. The relics themselves have the same odds, except for the bonus relic, which we have already established does not make up for all the extra relics you're missing out on. It may feel like you have better luck with the 10+1 pack, because you open them all at once and get rewarded instantly while ignoring the many bronzes in there, compared to opening individual relics and getting disappointed over and over before you get a single good fighter. It's all just psychological, but the fact is that 4 out of 5 premiere relics will give you a bronze fighter no matter where you get them from.

    - It's too rare to find premiere relics in the cabinet...

    - It's true that it takes some patience to gather premiere relics from the cabinet, but it's really not too rare. I see at least a couple per day, sometimes more, which should give you relics faster than the time it takes to save up another 1600 theonite. You just have to remember to check back often.
    However, I have to admit that if you're looking to buy a specific character's relic, those show up a bit too rarely in the cabinet. On my account where I only use Ms. Fortune and Robo-Fortune, i spend my theonite on 10+1 Fortune/Robo relic packs, because their relics show up so rarely in the cabinet that I always have extra money to afford them on top of spending my theo on relics, even without buying extra coins.

    - But it's better for new accounts to buy the 10+1 pack to get fighters fast.
    - Not really, no. They get a lot of relics from just completing story nodes, and from completing origin stories. At their level, getting the extra money on top of being able to buy more relics from the cabinet is a very good method to both gain new fighters and upgrade the ones they already have.
    However, there is one offer in the store for new accounts that's pretty useful. It costs 1000 theonite, and you get a guaranteed gold fighter and a bunch of canopy coins. One purchase per account only.
     
    #2 Mornedil, May 13, 2020
    Last edited: May 14, 2020
    MAjOmneQ, BallotBoxer, Inked and 10 others like this.
  3. Lunix Vandal

    Lunix Vandal Member

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    Thanks for posting the math on this!
    It's worth noting that v4.2's Hyper Ultimate Variety Pack sits in between the two options you analyzed in terms of efficiency.

    Per 10,000 Theonite:

    Premiere 10+1 Vouchers: 110 Relics (as ten 10+1 vouchers), with an average yield of ...
    • 82 Bronze fighters
    • 23.2 Silver fighters
    • 8.2 4.2 Gold fighters
    • 0.6 Diamond fighters
    • 4400 relic shards
    Hyper Ultimate Variety Pack: 154 Relics (as fourteen 10+1 vouchers), with an average yield of ...
    • 114.8 Bronze fighters
    • 32.48 Silver fighters
    • 11.48 5.88 Gold fighters
    • 0.84 Diamond fighters
    • 6160 relic shards
    • Guaranteed exactly 11 fighters for each character, with at least one Silver-or-better for each
    Canopy Coins: 230 Premiere relics (6.25 purchases of 1,840,000 coins = 11,500,000 coins), with an average yield of ...
    • 188.6 Bronze fighters
    • 32.2 Silver fighters
    • 8.05 Gold fighters
    • 1.15 Diamond fighters
    • 9200 relic shards
    The Hyper Pack gives slightly more natural Gold Fighters for your Theonite on average, but coin purchases more than make up for it with the sheer volume of natural-Bronze fodder and relic shards they offer -- both in terms of potential skill points and eventual Gold-to-Diamond upgrade materials. 74 Bronzes and the three extra Silver Relics they give you can be melted down into four Golds, compared to the three-ish extra nat-Golds the Hyper Pack offers. Raising even half of those Bronzes to level 30 also gives more skill points than raising three Golds to 50, for much less total experience required.

    EDIT: I originally read the 0.82 probability-per-relic for Bronzes as 0.82 probability-per-10+1 for Golds, leading to some incorrect numbers and conclusions. Don't maths while tired, kids. :^P
     
    #3 Lunix Vandal, May 13, 2020
    Last edited: May 15, 2020
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  4. ZeoW

    ZeoW Active Member

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    Can this thread be pinned or something?

    I feel like every player has to read this before making their decision.

    I made the exact same mistake in buying 10+1 offers when I started before a friend pointed out that you get so much more value by buying coins.
     
    rexturtle1120 likes this.
  5. Mornedil

    Mornedil Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for taking the time to compare it to the 10,000 theonite Ultimate Variety Hyper Pack!
    However.. The numbers don't look right. They should add up to exactly the same number as the amount of relics.
    To calculate the average amount of fighters per rarity you get from the relics, you do:
    • [odds per relic] x [relic amount]
    and in the case of premiere relics with bonus relics:
    • [odds per relic] x [relic amount] + [bonus relic odds] x [bonus relic amount]
    upload_2020-5-14_11-25-51.png

    With the above odds, here is the average yield per 10,000 Theonite:

    Premiere 10+1 Vouchers (100 premiere relics + 10 bonus premiere relics):
    • 82 Bronze fighters ( 0.82*100 )
    • 23.2 Silver fighters ( 0.14*100+0.92*10 )
    • 4.2 Gold fighters ( 0.035*100+0.07*10 )
    • 0.6 Diamond fighters ( 0.005*100+0.01*10 )
    • 4400 relic shards
    Hyper Ultimate Variety Pack (140 character relics + 14 bonus character relics):
    • 114.8 Bronze fighters ( 0.82*140 )
    • 32.48 Silver fighters ( 0.14*140+0.92*14 )
    • 5.88 Gold fighters ( 0.035*140+0.07*14 )
    • 0.84 Diamond fighters ( 0.005*140+0.01*14 )
    • 6160 relic shards
    • Guaranteed exactly 11 fighters for each character, with at least one Silver-or-better for each
    Canopy Coins: 230 Premiere relics (6.25 purchases of 1,840,000 coins = 11,500,000 coins):
    • 188.6 Bronze fighters ( 0.82*230 )
    • 32.2 Silver fighters ( 0.14*230 )
    • 8.05 Gold fighters ( 0.035*230 )
    • 1.15 Diamond fighters ( 0.005*230 )
    • 9200 relic shards

    After re-calculating these, it seems like the only number you had wrong was the gold relics.
    I apologize if I over explained it before figuring out which number was wrong, but I wanted to have an explanation to the calculations in this thread either way for anyone to read!

    The Hyper Pack is definitely more value than the regular 10+1 pack, but coins still come out on top in all categories except for silver fighters, where it seems to be more or less a tie between the Hyper Pack and coin purchases!
     
  6. GreatTiny

    GreatTiny Member

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    I've had the impression this was the case for quite long now but was super lazy to actually verify it. Also most likely was I one of those that badly adviced newbies. Thank you for the data! Good content.
     
  7. Tsukiakari

    Tsukiakari Member

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    But sometime when you need a specific fighter, 10+1 specific fighter relic might be better. Like I really want a SG to get far in Rift, but I'm not lucky with the cabinet not give me Valentine Relic, so I'm saving theonites waiting for Val pf to buy 10+1 Val Relic hoping for SG to show up. If I'm not desperate for SG, I would convert all my theo to coins, but then it would take me months to buy enough 11 Val relic.
     
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  8. Irghen

    Irghen Active Member

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    Thanks for the math, I was struggling with my next purchase but I guess I'll fill up on coins and wait for 4.3 to hit. Also, you made me feel quite good about my previous real money investment on theo to buy coins.

    A small corollary, beyond building your collection and piling up skill points, having Canopy in the bank is great for when you actually get a great drop, upgrading a skill tree and getting moves to a useful level is definetly not cheap. Neither are those [expletive deleted] diamond keys, although I would recommend getting those with rift coins instead.

    I get your point, but I think it would still make more sense to go the coin way, since with all those relic shards you're also going to see more golden and diamond relics which means more chances to get your drop.

    And even if you don't get the exact card you're fishing for (curse you Meow & Forever!) there's a good chance you'll get some other useful fighters AND a ton of skillpoints and evolution fodder for whenever you do get your drop.
     
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  9. Blimeylimey

    Blimeylimey Member

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    Thanks for the math on this. I used this method for looking at the holiday offers (the ones with 2 10+1 jackpot relics and 2million canopy coins). Where I live, they cost $99.99 USD and purchasing premiere relics with canopy coins still yields better average results.
    The difference for those offers is that they have more narrow possible outcomes, so the calculation changes depending on how you value the relic possibilities. The 2019 Halloween jackpot relics had several new variants and no possibility of getting older diamonds. Other holiday relics had 1/3 possibility that opening a gold would be an elemental exclusive.


    I disagree here. Premiere relics are better but they're not 13 or 14 times better. If a player does not value any outcome other than Valentine, then getting Valentine character relics is better. 10+1 packs are more efficient than purchasing them one at a time from the relic menu and, as pointed out in the main post, character relics don't show up frequently enough in the Cabinet of Curiosities. I'd guess that most players do not have collections full enough for this to really be an issue, but a themed account or mostly complete collection may not care about getting most of the possible outcomes.
     
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  10. Lililira

    Lililira Well-Known Member

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    Oh wow, thanks for running the numbers for this!

    I had heard that buying coins to buy relics was a more efficient use of theo, but I wasn't really aware exactly how much of a difference it makes. Also good to see the Hyper Pack numbers too, since I thought that at least it might be better, but I guess not quite.

    As for how often Premieres appear in the CoC, I've actually been tracking my relic earnings for a few months, through editing the first post on the Fukua Relic Hoarding thread. Link: https://forum.skullgirlsmobile.com/threads/hoarding-relics-for-fukua.16288/

    Looks like up until 4.2 it was about ~25 Premieres every 10-ish days (with checking hourly for about 8-12 hours a day), but seems to have drastically slowed down ever since the Cloned relics were added to the CoC (April 3, closest time point I have is April 6) even with the added bonus relics from the Viewing Parlor, despite no changes in behavior on my part.

    I think the CoC might be splitting the chances of getting a Premiere 50/50 between regular and Cloned versions, which has about halved the rates at which I can stockpile the regular ones. This won't be a problem for much longer though, since the Cloned ones are only going to be here until 4.3 anyways, which is only a few more weeks I'm guessing.
     
  11. Display Nameeeeeeeee

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    I'm pretty sure I bought the 10+1 pack only once, twice tops. I've been buying canopy instead for almost as long as I've been playing the game.

    This is why math matters, kiddos! :)
     
  12. Lunix Vandal

    Lunix Vandal Member

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    Oops! I had just gotten home from working an overtime shift with not enough sleep when I saw the thread, and misread the 0.82 probability for a Bronze from normal Premieres as a 0.82 for a Gold from each 10+1. :oops:

    Coins do come out slightly ahead on Silver fighters when you figure in the Relic Shards -- with so many extra Bronzes, most of the 3040 extra Shards you earn over opening a Hyper Pack will go toward (almost) 3 extra Silver Relics.
     
    #12 Lunix Vandal, May 15, 2020
    Last edited: May 15, 2020
  13. Rudølf

    Rudølf Well-Known Member

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    There's so many calculations going on in this thread... I almost lost focus from the text color..! >:C

    By the way, thanks for this! I feel so dumb not coming across this idea for the past year playing! *BigFacepalm*

    Also, don't any relics in the Cabinet just feel luckier? I tend to get good stuff there, makes me feel like they're RNGeesus' (or Taliesin's) blessings in disguise :0
     
  14. MrNoggin

    MrNoggin Member

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    So, mathematics aside, where is there a relic drop list?

    To my understanding some fighters can only be pulled from certain places (like inner pieces from gold presents, oh mai from the daily). I’ve only seen certain other fighters listed in places like the elemental relics (such as untouchable in the water relic). The only place I’ve seen potential drops listed outside of update mail is watching the scroll bar in the relic store.

    My collection is about 80% complete. I’m mostly missing diamond fighters, plus a handful of golds. I can get behind spending my resources on coins and premiere relics from here on to get moar fighters moar faster, but if I’m angling for these specific fighters where do I go?
     
  15. ZeoW

    ZeoW Active Member

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    The only fighters that can be obtained via specific means are Inner Pieces (from Gold Gifts), Oh Mai (from Daily Relics), and Elemental Exclusive fighters (from specific Elemental relics). Other fighters can be obtained via normal Premiere Relics unless they just got released, like Fukua.

    These Elemental Exclusive fighters are Star-Crossed Parasoul, Idol Threat Filia, Pyro-Technique Valentine, Megasonic Big Band and Grim Fan Painwheel. You can get these Elemental relics on weekends but they rotate every week from one element to the next. This weekend is Light for example.

    During certain events like the Cinco De Mayo event, there are special relics with a limited pool of specific fighters, allowing you to acquire them easily. Some of these event relics holds one of the Elemental Exclusive fighters. I got my Star-Crossed from the St. Patrick's event relic for example.
     
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  16. MrNoggin

    MrNoggin Member

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    Yeah I figured as much, but I was having difficulty verifying this info. Good to know I only need to harvest for air, dark, and fire relics and can otherwise start the premiere grind. Thank you!

    Outside of these, Fukua, and diamonds I’m missing:
    Necrobreaker (the only silver I don’t have)
    Bio-exorcist
    Wulfsbane
    Freedom fighter
    Untouchable
    Lapis luxury
    Diva intervention
    Evergreen evil

    So I’m really keen on figuring out where to spend my resources
     
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  17. ZeoW

    ZeoW Active Member

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    Oh wait I forgot Necrobreaker. She's only available in real life events if you meet the SGM staff and have them send her to your mail. Last October, she was part of the rewards for the Halloween Prize Fight though.

    Also, Wulfsbane, Untouchable and Diva Intervention are Gold fighter rewards in the respective character Prize Fights. You'll get them soon.
     
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  18. MrNoggin

    MrNoggin Member

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    Ah crap. Here’s hoping Necrobreaker is in this halloween event again. I don’t really do cons... I did really do my best to grind last halloween but had no luck on draws except for criminal mind.

    Do you know roughly what the top 10% threshold is for the high level prize fights? I’ve hit 25m after some really solid grinding last summer and still was only in the 11-30% range.
     
  19. Dusty00

    Dusty00 Well-Known Member

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    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1hpmUc__uYo0-tq10tampy7CDIfALn6N5_sMELTBlTOs/htmlview

    This might be helpful. Copied from Discord pins and all credits to @Krazete
     
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  20. MrNoggin

    MrNoggin Member

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    That does look super helpful, thank you!
     

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